With Bitcoin, the Smart Money Is Staying Put

A collection of bitcoin tokens stand in front of an illustration of binary code in this arranged photograph in London, U.K., on Wednesday, Jan. 4, 2017. The electronic coin that trades and is regulated like oil and gold surged 79 percent since the start of 2016 to $778, its highest level since early 2014. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The Bitcoin community is abuzz with talk of an impending fork, with wildly divergent opinions as to whether or not this is bearish or bullish for the asset. One well-known pundit in the community was quoted as saying that the “smart money left a few days ago”.

Of course, it goes without saying that I don’t have a crystal ball and can’t say for a certainty that this is just plain wrong, but I believe that it is.

Let’s look at a long-term Gann setup on a 4-hour chart:

I note that price fell hard off the 1st arc (blue) and then worked its way back all the way to the 1st arc pair (red), where it faltered again. BUT, the fall, as harsh it was to those leveraged long, still made a higher low. Now, of course, it could fall again, making a lower low, but there is no reason that I can see to expect that to happen. This arc pair has been difficult. Pricetime is making it’s 3rd effort to get through the pair. It may falter yet again. But it is making higher highs and higher lows as it works its way through. This is a bullish indicator.

Of course, we won’t really have a confirmed buy signal until we get a close on the sunny side of the pair. I can’t say whether or not the asset will rally strong to the top of the pair tomorrow, or if it will move sideways through the pair for the next week. But it seems that it wants to get to the other side. What will the terrain look like when it gets to the sunny side of the pair? It looks quite lovely 🙂

This is the same chart we were looking at above, only this time we are seeing where the long-term 2ndarc pair is (dark green arc). We also see the shorter-term bull setup . The 5th arc pair on the short-term setup intersects the long-term 2nd pair at a new ATH in the neighborhood of $1900.

Do I know for a certainty this will happen? Of course not. But it is an eminently reasonable target based upon the geometry. However, I must stress again that it is a wise decision to wait until a buy signal is given before leveraging long. It is hard to be patient, but until we get the signal we can’t know for sure if the market agrees with us, or not…

Happy trading!!